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☆ Fed Chair Powell says there’s no rush to cut interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony submitted to congressional lawmakers, released Wednesday. Recent economic data showed that price pressures persisted in January, leading investors to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts this year. Still, the timing and pace of rate cuts remains up in the air. Too soon to cut rates? In a recent interview with CNBC, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said “we’ll see” if the Fed cuts rates in 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell’s, Powell’s, inflation’s, ”, José Torres, “ Young, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, “, “ I’m, Austan Goolsbee, we’re, Adriana Kugler Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Financial, “, Interactive Brokers, CNN, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Richmond Fed, Congress, Chicago Fed, ”, Stanford University Locations: Washington

☆ Premarket stocks: Joe Biden’s top economic adviser isn’t worried about the latest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —US markets broke a five-week winning streak last Friday after disappointing inflation data reignited economic and interest rate-related fears on Wall Street. Then last week, two key inflation indicators for January — the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — rose above Wall Street expectations. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the new data showed that the Fed needs more confidence before cutting rates. I think in this case, the market isn’t necessarily telling you much about the economy’s fundamentals, the market is telling you what other market participants think. And I think that those economic fundamentals get you to the part that says, you know, it’s not not the economy.

Persons: Price, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, isn’t, Bell, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden, I’m, they’re, It’s, it’s, Joe Weisenthal, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hanna Ziady, Liam Peach, ” Peach Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CPI, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Capital, Discover Financial Services, Discover, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: New York

☆ A soft landing is now likely. But Americans will still deal with unaffordable housing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-04 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA

☆ Dollar down on day, but off lows after hotter than expected inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.

Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S

☆ Fed's favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%. Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. I'm hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down."

Persons: Dow Jones, Stocks, Bonds, Bill Adams, John Williams, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Energy, Dow Jones, Treasury, Labor, Fed, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, . New York Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, European Central Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: ., New York

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Wall Street indexes ended marginally higher on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Other similar positive comments sent Treasury yields tumbling, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note last at an over two-month low of 4.2840%. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday alluded to the possibility of another rate hike. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Christopher Waller, Governor Bowman, Charalampos Pissouros, Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, General Motors, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, XM, Nvidia, Richmond Fed, Dow e, CrowdStrike Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

"Monetary policy is in a good place for policymakers to assess incoming information on the economy and financial conditions," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday. The Fed has kept its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range since July, and after the last meeting over Oct. 31-Nov. 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is not yet confident policy is restrictive enough. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a policy hawk like Mester, on Tuesday delivered a similar assessment. Indeed, Waller said, if the inflation decline continues for several more months, rate cuts could be in order to keep policy from becoming overly tight. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who has for months said the Fed policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% is high enough, said Wednesday he feels data backing that view is getting clearer.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Loretta Mester, Mester, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, I'm, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Raphael Bostic, we’ve, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Deepa Babington Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, Dallas Fed, Reuters, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: El Progreso, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,

☆ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin: Disconnect between consumer data and what I hear on the ground
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin: Disconnect between consumer data and what I hear on the groundRichmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin joins CNBC at the CFO Council Summit to discuss the state of the consumer, the extent to which Barkin expects an economic slowdown, and current economic forces that will bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Tom Barkin, Thomas Barkin, Barkin Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC

☆ Fed's Barkin says rate hikes are still on the table if inflation doesn't continue to ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday that policymakers need to retain the option of raising interest rates if inflation doesn't show enough progress coming down. But Barkin said he's not ready to commit to a particular policy path with so much uncertainty in the air. "But if inflation is going to flare back up, I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates," Barkin added. The Fed's preferred inflation measure of core personal consumption expenditures showed a 12-month rate of 3.7% in September and is expected to show a slightly lower reading in October. However, Barkin called the possibility of easing policy "a forecasting question" that he's not ready to answer.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, he's, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Christopher Waller, he'd, it's, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC, Commerce Department, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Market

The minutes will likely include the "superficially hawkish rhetoric" that rates might still move higher, Citi analysts wrote on Sunday in a preview of the release. But "we continue to think that Fed officials are most likely done raising rates this cycle." "Inflation does seem to be settling," Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Fox Business on Monday. But he also felt it was likely to remain "stubborn, and that makes the case for me for being higher for longer." "What I would be looking for is sustained evidence" of inflation in steady decline, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said last week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, Collins, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Citi, Fed, Richmond Fed, Fox Business, Boston, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Gold rises on dollar weakness as focus turns to Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar languished near more than a 2-1/2-month low as investors expect U.S. interest rates to fall next year. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. Signs of slowing inflation in the United States has boosted expectations that the U.S. central bank was done raising interest rates. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. Inflation is likely to remain "stubborn" and force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than investors anticipate, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Edward Meir, CME's, Jerome Powell, It's, Meir, Thomas Barkin, Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, Benchmark, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low on Fed expectations, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar falls to two-month low on Fed view, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation on the ropes, shutdown averted
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. Much like then, the sheer scale of the yield swoon has stoked bond volatility gauges (.MOVE) too. What's more, a quarter point rate cut by May is now 80% priced and 100bps of easing through 2024 is now baked in. U.S. corporate news stays on retail later as Target reports earnings, following a beat by Home Depot on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping's, Joe Biden, Russell, Austan Goolsbee, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin, Jonathan Haskel, Xi Jinping, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Home Depot, Berkshire, General Motors, Procter, Gamble, Richmond Fed, Bank of England, APEC, Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Reuters, NFIB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, UK's, York, San Francisco

However, the rally has run out of steam as several Fed policymakers this week pushed back against market expectations that the central bank will begin cutting interest rates soon. "The market got carried away regarding how soon it thought we would be seeing interest rate cuts being delivered. "But that was never the case and comments from various CB (central bank) officials this week have very much opened eyes to this." On the earnings front, shares of Walt Disney (DIS.N) rose 4.1% in premarket trade after the entertainment company exceeded Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit on higher attendance at its Shanghai and Hong Kong theme parks. MGM Resorts International(MGM.N) added 3.5% on beating third-quarter estimates for profit and revenue as the casino operator benefited from easing pandemic restrictions.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Stuart Cole, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Walt Disney, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: Intercontinental Exchange Inc, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Equiti, CB, Chicago Fed, Wall, International Monetary Fund, Richmond Fed, Labor Department, Dow e, Walt, Arm Holdings, Theatre, AMC Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, Thomson Locations: U.S, Shanghai, Hong Kong

☆ Climate protesters interrupt speech by Fed Chair Powell — for the second time in a month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Manav Tanneeru | Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is leaving the door open for additional interest rate hikes to defeat inflation, he said Thursday in prepared remarks. However, investors are bullish about another pause in rate hikes next month, according to fed funds rate futures. As Powell began to deliver his speech, he was interrupted by climate protesters who made their way onto the stage. That could potentially be a headache for the Fed, since strong demand could be maintaining some upward pressure on prices. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin hinted that the Fed could forgo additional action because the economy perhaps hasn’t felt the full impact of the Fed’s previous 11 rate hikes just yet.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “, ” Powell, Powell, Stocks, Dow, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Thomas Barkin, hasn’t, ” Barkin, — CNN’s Krystal Hur Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, International Monetary Fund, Economic, of New, Nasdaq, Treasury, Interim Kansas, Richmond Fed Locations: Washington, Washington ,, of New York, Jeffersonville , Indiana, New Orleans

☆ Morning Bid: Oil and bond yields try to find toehold
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. The supply picture for U.S. crude, which is now down more than 20% from late September's peaks, has also weighed on energy prices. Crude inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels over the week to Nov. 3, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. With senior Fed officials on Wednesday side-stepping guidance on the central bank's next policy steps, attention focuses squarely on Powell's latest speech. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen, Becton Dickinson, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Federal, American Petroleum Institute, Walt Disney, ABC, Warner Bros Discovery, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Louis Interim, European Central Bank, . Treasury, News Corp, Wynn Resorts, U.S, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Washington, St, Brussels, Mettler, Toledo, TransDigm

☆ Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500's best week of 2023: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. equity futures were flat on Sunday evening after the major averages capped their best week so far this year. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.03% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered below the flat line at 0.01%. November is the best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. The S&P 500 has generated an average return of 7% from November through April since then, he said. Several other Fed officials are making public remarks later in the week as well, including New York Federal Reserve President and CEO John Williams, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

Persons: Dow, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Walt Disney, Wynn, Jerome Powell, Bharat Ramamurti, CNBC's, Lisa D, Cook, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stock Traders, MGM Resorts, Occidental Petroleum, National Economic Council, New York Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Federal, Dallas Fed Locations: Horton, Atlanta, Richmond

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market ... as long as it doesn't get too bad
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 02, 2023 in New York City. Friday's market reaction to the jobs report comes down to a simple premise: bad news is good news, as long as it isn't too bad. Slow, controlled growth is something the markets and the Fed are seeking in the current climate, negative growth is not. Despite market pricing, it seems like cuts aren't around the corner if recent statements from Fed officials are any indication. You could imagine a scenario where inflation is starting to settle and you want to lower real rates.

Persons: Stocks, nonfarm, Mike Loewengart, We've, Michael Arone, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment, Markets, Traders, Group, State Street Global Advisors, Richmond Fed, CNBC PRO Locations: New York City

☆ Dollar mixed after earlier bounce on strong US retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Retail sales rose 0.7% last month as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars. Despite the positive sales, Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, noted that there are some headwinds affecting U.S. consumers. "Investors need to look underneath the sales figures to get a better look on the health of the consumer. Rising use of credit and early signs of delinquencies could dampen some of the enthusiasm," he said in a note. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 43% chance of an additional interest rate hike this year, but only 12% odds of a rate increase next month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Marc Chandler, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Sterling, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Emelia Sithole, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bannockburn Global Forex, LPL Financial, Fed, Richmond Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, U.S, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. A rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yields up at 4.813%, pressured megacaps Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O), dragging them down between 0.1% and 0.5%. Bank of America (BAC.N) gained 3.1%, boosting the S&P 500 (.SPX) as it joined rivals in earning more from interest payments by its customers, while investment banking and trading fared better than expected. Economy-sensitive energy (.SPNY) and materials stocks (.SPLRCM) led gains amongst the major S&P 500 sectors, while information technology (.SPLRCT) lagged behind. Dollar Tree (DLTR.O) rose 4.4% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the discount retail chain's shares to "buy" from "neutral".

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, megacaps, Sam Stovall, Thomas Barkin, Biden, Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Lockheed Martin, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Biden, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, megacaps Apple, Microsoft, CFRA Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Bank of America, Semiconductor, Dow Jones, Israel, Washington, VMware, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, megacaps ., Philadelphia, Bengaluru

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